Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.6% vs 51.1%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs McBain 50.9% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 58.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 58.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 55.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 56.8%
56.8%
43.2%
Nelson
McBain
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Nelson
McBain
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
McBain
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
McBain
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
McBain
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
McBain
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
52.1% (545)
-1.4%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
57.1% (14)
+1.5%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
37.0% (46)
+6.4%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McBain shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. McBain is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (349).
Home / Away
Nelson
McBain
Home
52.3% (621)
52.2% (289)
Away
48.9% (618)
50.0% (316)
By Period
Nelson
McBain
P1
48.4%
52.6%
P2
53.5%
53.6%
P3
50.3%
47.1%
OT
41.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.8%
54.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 15:09 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 07:31 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 00:32 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |