Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs McBain 46.7% (+1.7%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 10-7 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 77.8%
Defensive zone
Nelson 52.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 62.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 68.9%
68.9%
31.1%
Nelson
McBain
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
7
(17 meetings)
10
7
Nelson
McBain
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 McBain
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
3
Nelson
McBain
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
McBain
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Nelson
McBain
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
McBain
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
48.0% (2,298)
-0.1%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
49.0% (51)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
35.7% (308)
+8.1%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +8.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McBain shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. McBain is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,667).
Home / Away
Nelson
McBain
Home
50.0% (5,845)
49.0% (1,359)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
44.0% (1,298)
By Period
Nelson
McBain
P1
48.7%
46.7%
P2
48.5%
47.5%
P3
47.7%
45.6%
OT
45.6%
37.5%
Final 5 min
47.8%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
46.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 15:09 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 07:31 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 00:32 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 3 | 17:59 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 15:08 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 1 | 19:01 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 2 | 03:29 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 1 | 19:11 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 1 | 12:02 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 3 | 17:15 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 2 | 07:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 16, 2022 | 3 | 02:08 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 16, 2022 | 2 | 15:43 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 3 | 12:36 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 2 | 10:36 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 1 | 11:45 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |