Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs McBain 49.9% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McBain 64.4%
Defensive zone
McBain 68.5%
Neutral zone
McBain 66.0%
Result
Jack McBain favored at 65.5%
34.5%
65.5%
Nelson
McBain
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Nelson
McBain
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McBain
0
1
Nelson
McBain
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McBain
0
2
Nelson
McBain
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
McBain
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
51.2% (424)
+0.1%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
46.2% (13)
+12.5%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
27.3% (22)
+24.6%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +24.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McBain shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. McBain is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (316).
Home / Away
Nelson
McBain
Home
52.5% (590)
53.6% (235)
Away
51.7% (619)
46.0% (224)
By Period
Nelson
McBain
P1
50.5%
48.6%
P2
54.4%
50.9%
P3
51.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.3%
55.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2025 | 3 | 17:59 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 15:08 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 1 | 19:01 | Neutral | Jack McBain |