Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.2% vs 45.2%). Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — McBain shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs McBain 45.9% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 75.1%
Defensive zone
McBain 57.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 60.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 66.1%
66.1%
33.9%
Nelson
McBain
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Nelson
McBain
Last 5: Nelson 4-1 McBain
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
McBain
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
McBain
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
McBain
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
46.3% (568)
-0.2%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
37.5% (8)
-3.0%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
37.8% (74)
-7.4%
On penalty kill, McBain has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McBain shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. McBain is 45.6% vs left-shot opponents (441).
Home / Away
Nelson
McBain
Home
48.7% (419)
50.6% (330)
Away
41.3% (368)
39.7% (320)
By Period
Nelson
McBain
P1
44.6%
45.4%
P2
47.3%
44.5%
P3
43.0%
45.7%
Final 5 min
39.4%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2024 | 2 | 03:29 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 1 | 19:11 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 1 | 12:02 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 3 | 17:15 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 2 | 07:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |