Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Benn 48.9% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Benn 69.9%
Defensive zone
Nelson 61.2%
Neutral zone
Benn 51.1%
Result
Jamie Benn favored at 63.6%
36.4%
63.6%
Nelson
Benn
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Nelson
Benn
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Benn
0
2
Nelson
Benn
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Benn
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Benn
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
44.3% (61)
+6.4%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
58.8% (17)
-0.2%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
50.0% (2)
-6.6%
On penalty kill, Benn has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Benn shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. Benn is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (44).
Home / Away
Nelson
Benn
Home
52.3% (621)
47.4% (38)
Away
48.9% (618)
47.6% (42)
By Period
Nelson
Benn
P1
48.4%
32.0%
P2
53.5%
67.9%
P3
50.3%
40.7%
Final 5 min
50.8%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Benn
48.0%▼
52.5%
47.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 12:27 | Offensive | Jamie Benn |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 16:39 | Offensive | Jamie Benn |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 00:54 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |