Scouting Report
Jamie Benn holds a +16.0% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Benn shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Benn 59.9% (-16.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 62.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 65.0%
Neutral zone
Nelson 68.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 64.7%
64.7%
35.3%
Nelson
Benn
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Nelson
Benn
Last 5: Nelson 1-4 Benn
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Benn
0
2
Nelson
Benn
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Benn
0
2
Nelson
Benn
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Benn
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Benn
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
62.6% (479)
-16.5%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
58.4% (190)
-23.9%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
58.1% (43)
-27.7%
On penalty kill, Benn has a +27.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Benn shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Benn is 67.2% vs left-shot opponents (384).
Home / Away
Nelson
Benn
Home
48.7% (419)
60.5% (349)
Away
41.3% (368)
62.0% (363)
By Period
Nelson
Benn
P1
44.6%
60.8%
P2
47.3%
60.1%
P3
43.0%
62.4%
OT
100.0%
83.3%
Final 5 min
39.4%
62.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Benn
48.0%▼
52.5%
61.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2024 | 3 | 16:35 | Defensive | Jamie Benn |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 3 | 11:15 | Offensive | Jamie Benn |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 3 | 11:00 | Defensive | Jamie Benn |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 2 | 16:59 | Offensive | Jamie Benn |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 2 | 08:25 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |