Scouting Report
Jamie Benn holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Benn 55.0% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Benn 57.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 56.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 56.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 56.8%
56.8%
43.2%
Nelson
Benn
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Nelson
Benn
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Benn
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Benn
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
55.9% (365)
-4.6%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
56.8% (132)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
53.1% (32)
-1.2%
On even strength, Benn has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Benn shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. Benn is 58.7% vs left-shot opponents (329).
Home / Away
Nelson
Benn
Home
52.5% (590)
57.3% (267)
Away
51.7% (619)
54.6% (262)
By Period
Nelson
Benn
P1
50.5%
54.3%
P2
54.4%
55.7%
P3
51.4%
58.1%
Final 5 min
57.3%
59.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Benn
48.0%▼
52.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:49 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 2 | 08:55 | Neutral | Jamie Benn |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 2 | 08:48 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |