Brock Nelson vs Jesperi Kotkaniemi
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Kotkaniemi 48.6% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kotkaniemi 68.8%
Defensive zone
Nelson 59.7%
Neutral zone
Kotkaniemi 50.7%
Result
Jesperi Kotkaniemi favored at 50.7%
49.3%
50.7%
Nelson
Kotkaniemi
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Nelson
Kotkaniemi
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kotkaniemi
0
1
Nelson
Kotkaniemi
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Kotkaniemi
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
47.3% (207)
+3.4%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
100.0% (3)
-41.4%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
33.3% (3)
+10.1%
On power play, Kotkaniemi has a +41.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kotkaniemi shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. Kotkaniemi is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (116).
Home / Away
Nelson
Kotkaniemi
Home
52.3% (621)
46.5% (129)
Away
48.9% (618)
50.0% (84)
By Period
Nelson
Kotkaniemi
P1
48.4%
51.3%
P2
53.5%
46.1%
P3
50.3%
45.9%
Final 5 min
50.8%
48.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Kotkaniemi
52.0%▲
49.0%
47.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 12:19 | Neutral | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |