Brock Nelson vs Jesperi Kotkaniemi
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jesperi Kotkaniemi holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (65% H2H, 20 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.1% vs Kotkaniemi 49.2% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 25-19 in 44 meetings
Offensive zone
Kotkaniemi 70.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 52.2%
Neutral zone
Kotkaniemi 55.5%
Result
Jesperi Kotkaniemi favored at 55.8%
44.2%
55.8%
Nelson
Kotkaniemi
Head-to-Head Record
25
-
19
(44 meetings)
25
19
Nelson
Kotkaniemi
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Kotkaniemi
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kotkaniemi
2
7
Nelson
Kotkaniemi
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
10
5
Nelson
Kotkaniemi
15 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
13
7
Nelson
Kotkaniemi
20 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Kotkaniemi
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (9,510)
49.1% (3,840)
-1.3%
Power Play
54.1% (1,082)
51.1% (350)
+3.0%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (728)
45.7% (35)
-2.2%
On power play, Nelson has a +3.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kotkaniemi shoots left. Nelson is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (7,357).
Nelson shoots left. Kotkaniemi is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (2,774).
Home / Away
Nelson
Kotkaniemi
Home
49.8% (5,696)
49.7% (2,194)
Away
46.4% (5,625)
48.6% (2,031)
By Period
Nelson
Kotkaniemi
P1
48.6%
49.8%
P2
48.4%
50.5%
P3
47.4%
47.2%
OT
46.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.4%
49.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
48.1%
Kotkaniemi
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 12:19 | Neutral | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 07:02 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 18:23 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 3 | 16:51 | Neutral | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 2 | 18:55 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 01:56 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 01:45 | Defensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 02:02 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 01:57 | Defensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 11:47 | Offensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 11:34 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 06:57 | Neutral | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 12:48 | Offensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 09:51 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 00:39 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 18:03 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 14:26 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 08:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 01:04 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 18:42 | Neutral | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |