Brock Nelson vs Jesperi Kotkaniemi
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.3% vs 49.2%). Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (65% H2H, 20 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Kotkaniemi 49.2% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 25-19 in 44 meetings
Offensive zone
Kotkaniemi 61.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 60.0%
Neutral zone
Nelson 52.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 52.0%
52.0%
48.0%
Nelson
Kotkaniemi
Head-to-Head Record
25
-
19
(44 meetings)
25
19
Nelson
Kotkaniemi
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Kotkaniemi
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kotkaniemi
2
7
Nelson
Kotkaniemi
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
10
5
Nelson
Kotkaniemi
15 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
13
7
Nelson
Kotkaniemi
20 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Kotkaniemi
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
49.0% (3,852)
-1.1%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
51.3% (351)
+3.2%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
45.7% (35)
-1.9%
On power play, Nelson has a +3.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kotkaniemi shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Kotkaniemi is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (2,784).
Home / Away
Nelson
Kotkaniemi
Home
50.0% (5,845)
49.7% (2,197)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
48.7% (2,041)
By Period
Nelson
Kotkaniemi
P1
48.7%
49.9%
P2
48.5%
50.4%
P3
47.7%
47.2%
OT
45.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.8%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Kotkaniemi
52.0%▲
49.0%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 12:19 | Neutral | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 07:02 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 18:23 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 3 | 16:51 | Neutral | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 2 | 18:55 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 01:56 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 01:45 | Defensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 02:02 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 01:57 | Defensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 11:47 | Offensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 11:34 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 06:57 | Neutral | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 12:48 | Offensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 09:51 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 00:39 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 18:03 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 14:26 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 08:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 01:04 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 18:42 | Neutral | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |