Brock Nelson vs Jesperi Kotkaniemi
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.1% vs 51.8%). Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Kotkaniemi 51.5% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 58.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 61.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 63.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 62.5%
62.5%
37.5%
Nelson
Kotkaniemi
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Nelson
Kotkaniemi
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Kotkaniemi
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Kotkaniemi
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Kotkaniemi
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
52.8% (670)
-1.5%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
37.5% (32)
+21.2%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
14.3% (7)
+37.6%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +37.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kotkaniemi shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. Kotkaniemi is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (459).
Home / Away
Nelson
Kotkaniemi
Home
52.5% (590)
52.5% (366)
Away
51.7% (619)
51.0% (343)
By Period
Nelson
Kotkaniemi
P1
50.5%
53.8%
P2
54.4%
49.2%
P3
51.4%
52.6%
Final 5 min
57.3%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Kotkaniemi
52.0%▲
49.0%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 07:02 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 18:23 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 3 | 16:51 | Neutral | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 2 | 18:55 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |