Brock Nelson vs Jesperi Kotkaniemi
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jesperi Kotkaniemi holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 10 meetings). Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Kotkaniemi shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Kotkaniemi 51.3% (-6.3%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 12-8 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Kotkaniemi 70.0%
Defensive zone
Kotkaniemi 66.2%
Neutral zone
Kotkaniemi 67.0%
Result
Jesperi Kotkaniemi favored at 67.2%
32.8%
67.2%
Nelson
Kotkaniemi
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
8
(20 meetings)
12
8
Nelson
Kotkaniemi
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Kotkaniemi
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kotkaniemi
1
2
Nelson
Kotkaniemi
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kotkaniemi
3
4
Nelson
Kotkaniemi
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
8
2
Nelson
Kotkaniemi
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Kotkaniemi
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
51.7% (586)
-5.6%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
48.1% (52)
-13.6%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
62.5% (8)
-32.1%
On penalty kill, Kotkaniemi has a +32.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kotkaniemi shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Kotkaniemi is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (463).
Home / Away
Nelson
Kotkaniemi
Home
48.7% (419)
49.5% (313)
Away
41.3% (368)
53.5% (333)
By Period
Nelson
Kotkaniemi
P1
44.6%
54.5%
P2
47.3%
51.1%
P3
43.0%
49.0%
Final 5 min
39.4%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Kotkaniemi
52.0%▲
49.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 01:56 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 01:45 | Defensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 02:02 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 01:57 | Defensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 11:47 | Offensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 11:34 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 06:57 | Neutral | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 12:48 | Offensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 09:51 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 00:39 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 18:03 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 14:26 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 08:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 01:04 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 18:42 | Neutral | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 07:29 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 05:34 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 00:11 | Defensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 11:32 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 07:16 | Defensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |