Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Pavelski 52.2% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 51.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 54.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 53.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 54.1%
54.1%
45.9%
Nelson
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Nelson
Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Nelson
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
52.5% (570)
-2.6%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
54.5% (145)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
44.4% (36)
-15.8%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Nelson is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (318).
Nelson shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Home / Away
Nelson
Pavelski
Home
49.8% (458)
55.0% (391)
Away
49.0% (506)
49.7% (360)
By Period
Nelson
Pavelski
P1
50.1%
50.8%
P2
45.4%
55.0%
P3
52.7%
52.0%
OT
33.3%
25.0%
Final 5 min
47.1%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2022 | 3 | 16:56 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |