Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Pavelski 53.0% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 58.8%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 70.3%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 59.2%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 66.5%
33.5%
66.5%
Nelson
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Nelson
Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Pavelski
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Pavelski
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
52.3% (560)
-5.4%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
57.5% (113)
-0.1%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
62.5% (16)
-37.5%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +37.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Nelson shoots left. Pavelski is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (513).
Home / Away
Nelson
Pavelski
Home
48.9% (521)
54.2% (360)
Away
45.5% (516)
52.6% (329)
By Period
Nelson
Pavelski
P1
45.9%
54.5%
P2
48.0%
56.7%
P3
48.0%
50.8%
OT
33.3%
30.8%
Final 5 min
45.3%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2023 | 1 | 14:44 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 3 | 06:31 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 1 | 06:12 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |