Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 43.3% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Pavelski 50.9% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 72.3%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 82.3%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 78.7%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 80.5%
19.5%
80.5%
Nelson
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Nelson
Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Pavelski
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
51.5% (594)
-5.4%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
51.7% (87)
-17.2%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
28.6% (14)
+1.8%
On power play, Pavelski has a +17.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Nelson is 43.3% vs right-shot opponents (240).
Nelson shoots left. Pavelski is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (527).
Home / Away
Nelson
Pavelski
Home
48.7% (419)
53.1% (339)
Away
41.3% (368)
49.2% (356)
By Period
Nelson
Pavelski
P1
44.6%
53.8%
P2
47.3%
47.8%
P3
43.0%
50.2%
OT
100.0%
71.4%
Final 5 min
39.4%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
45.2%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2024 | 3 | 05:23 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 2 | 14:42 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |