Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 10 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 16-14 in 30 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 69.9%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 61.3%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 67.8%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 65.4%
34.6%
65.4%
Nelson
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
14
(30 meetings)
16
14
Nelson
Pavelski
Last 10: Nelson 8-2 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
6
Nelson
Pavelski
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
8
6
Nelson
Pavelski
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
2
Nelson
Pavelski
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
53.6% (8,791)
-5.7%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
58.2% (2,122)
-3.7%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
50.9% (1,138)
-7.1%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +7.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Home / Away
Nelson
Pavelski
Home
50.0% (5,845)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Nelson
Pavelski
P1
48.7%
53.5%
P2
48.5%
55.2%
P3
47.7%
53.9%
OT
45.6%
52.3%
Final 5 min
47.8%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2024 | 3 | 05:23 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 2 | 14:42 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 1 | 14:44 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 3 | 06:31 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 1 | 06:12 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 19, 2022 | 3 | 16:56 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 4, 2020 | 3 | 06:12 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 4, 2020 | 1 | 19:16 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 4, 2020 | 1 | 11:15 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 4, 2020 | 1 | 07:47 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 7, 2019 | 2 | 19:50 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 7, 2019 | 1 | 05:46 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 20, 2018 | 3 | 07:03 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 20, 2018 | 2 | 16:36 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 20, 2018 | 2 | 11:49 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 20, 2018 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 8, 2018 | 3 | 15:57 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 8, 2018 | 3 | 00:09 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 8, 2018 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 8, 2018 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |