Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Ek 48.8% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Ek leads 15-14 in 29 meetings
Offensive zone
Ek 50.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 51.5%
Neutral zone
Nelson 50.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 50.5%
50.5%
49.5%
Nelson
Ek
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
15
(29 meetings)
14
15
Nelson
Ek
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Ek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ek
5
9
Nelson
Ek
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
8
2
Nelson
Ek
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ek
1
4
Nelson
Ek
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Ek
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
47.2% (815)
+3.5%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
53.8% (266)
+4.8%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
47.8% (180)
-4.4%
On power play, Nelson has a +4.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ek shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. Ek is 45.9% vs left-shot opponents (860).
Home / Away
Nelson
Ek
Home
52.3% (621)
49.9% (693)
Away
48.9% (618)
47.2% (568)
By Period
Nelson
Ek
P1
48.4%
46.2%
P2
53.5%
52.6%
P3
50.3%
46.5%
OT
41.2%
54.9%
Final 5 min
50.8%
44.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Ek
52.0%▲
46.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | OT | 03:57 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Mar 8, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 14:58 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 09:29 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 00:46 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 04:28 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 00:43 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 05:11 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 01:20 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 00:38 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 18:56 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 16:12 | Defensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 11:22 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 15:08 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 15:04 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 06:49 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 12:13 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 09:44 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |