Scouting Report
Joel Eriksson Ek holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Ek on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Ek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Ek 49.7% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
Ek leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 61.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 62.5%
Neutral zone
Nelson 61.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 61.9%
61.9%
38.1%
Nelson
Ek
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Nelson
Ek
Last 10: Nelson 3-7 Ek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ek
1
3
Nelson
Ek
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ek
1
4
Nelson
Ek
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Ek
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Ek
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
47.7% (1,023)
-1.6%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
60.2% (362)
-25.7%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
41.5% (217)
-11.1%
On power play, Ek has a +25.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ek shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Ek is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,053).
Home / Away
Nelson
Ek
Home
48.7% (419)
48.3% (801)
Away
41.3% (368)
51.1% (801)
By Period
Nelson
Ek
P1
44.6%
50.2%
P2
47.3%
50.1%
P3
43.0%
49.3%
OT
100.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
39.4%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Ek
52.0%▲
46.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2024 | 3 | 11:56 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 3 | 05:10 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 3 | 13:52 | Defensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 3 | 06:50 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 2 | 16:14 | Defensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 2 | 06:39 | Defensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 2 | 05:30 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 2 | 02:09 | Defensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 1 | 07:18 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 1 | 02:21 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |