Brock Nelson vs Jonathan Marchessault
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +17.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Marchessault 45.9% (+17.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 60.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 85.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 68.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 80.0%
80.0%
20.0%
Nelson
Marchessault
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Nelson
Marchessault
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Marchessault
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Marchessault
0
1
Nelson
Marchessault
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Marchessault
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
30.0% (30)
+20.7%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
66.7% (3)
-8.1%
On even strength, Nelson has a +20.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marchessault shoots right. Nelson is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Nelson shoots left. Marchessault is 37.5% vs left-shot opponents (24).
Home / Away
Nelson
Marchessault
Home
52.3% (621)
33.3% (21)
Away
48.9% (618)
33.3% (12)
By Period
Nelson
Marchessault
P1
48.4%
45.5%
P2
53.5%
25.0%
P3
50.3%
22.2%
OT
41.2%
100.0%
Final 5 min
50.8%
14.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Marchessault
32.0%▬
32.0%
33.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 09:14 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 10:21 | Neutral | Jonathan Marchessault |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 09:48 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |