Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +12.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Nelson wins 46.4% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 44.9% vs Toews 56.2% (-12.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 74.9%
Defensive zone
Nelson 92.0%
Neutral zone
Nelson 81.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 78.3%
78.3%
21.7%
Nelson
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Nelson
Toews
Last 5: Nelson 0-5 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
0
4
Nelson
Toews
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
0
1
Nelson
Toews
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
43.9% (715)
54.9% (1,229)
-11.0%
Power Play
61.5% (26)
62.7% (354)
-1.2%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (58)
54.3% (92)
-12.9%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Nelson is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (504).
Nelson shoots left. Toews is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,050).
Home / Away
Nelson
Toews
Home
42.9% (406)
57.6% (838)
Away
45.8% (393)
55.4% (837)
By Period
Nelson
Toews
P1
44.1%
58.0%
P2
47.2%
54.4%
P3
42.2%
56.7%
OT
30.8%
64.5%
Final 5 min
39.9%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
44.3%
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2015 | 3 | 08:27 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 17, 2015 | 1 | 04:03 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 13, 2014 | 3 | 12:06 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 13, 2014 | 3 | 11:59 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 13, 2014 | 1 | 00:46 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |