Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on defensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 15 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Toews 57.9% (-9.6%)
H2H factor
Toews leads 33-29 in 62 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 69.8%
Defensive zone
Nelson 69.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 74.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 71.0%
71.0%
29.0%
Nelson
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
29
-
33
(62 meetings)
29
33
Nelson
Toews
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
14
13
Nelson
Toews
27 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
4
11
Nelson
Toews
15 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
11
9
Nelson
Toews
20 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
57.2% (13,047)
-9.3%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
63.3% (3,252)
-8.8%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
53.6% (1,810)
-9.8%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Toews is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (11,653).
Home / Away
Nelson
Toews
Home
50.0% (5,845)
59.7% (9,192)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
56.1% (8,948)
By Period
Nelson
Toews
P1
48.7%
58.6%
P2
48.5%
57.8%
P3
47.7%
57.3%
OT
45.6%
58.9%
Final 5 min
47.8%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
57.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19, 2025 | 1 | 15:05 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 2 | 06:39 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 2 | 05:28 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 1 | 08:08 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 3 | 11:53 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 3 | 02:20 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 2 | 18:18 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 2 | 14:09 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 2 | 04:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 2 | 04:15 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 1 | 19:50 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 1 | 17:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 1 | 12:24 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 3 | 03:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 2 | 14:09 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 1 | 16:34 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 1 | 03:39 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 2 | 18:33 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |