Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +10.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Toews 60.3% (-10.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 80.7%
Defensive zone
Toews 51.9%
Neutral zone
Toews 76.0%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 76.0%
24.0%
76.0%
Nelson
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Nelson
Toews
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Toews
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
62.5% (696)
-11.8%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
59.6% (141)
-1.0%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
46.9% (32)
-3.5%
On even strength, Toews has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. Toews is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (577).
Home / Away
Nelson
Toews
Home
52.3% (621)
60.9% (435)
Away
48.9% (618)
62.0% (434)
By Period
Nelson
Toews
P1
48.4%
59.8%
P2
53.5%
65.7%
P3
50.3%
58.8%
OT
41.2%
80.0%
Final 5 min
50.8%
58.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
61.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19, 2025 | 1 | 15:05 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |