Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Toews 58.4% (-9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 61.9%
Defensive zone
Toews 88.6%
Neutral zone
Toews 72.2%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 71.2%
28.8%
71.2%
Nelson
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Nelson
Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Toews
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Toews
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
0
1
Nelson
Toews
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
58.0% (901)
-8.1%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
69.5% (226)
-16.7%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
51.7% (209)
-23.1%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +23.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Nelson is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (646).
Nelson shoots left. Toews is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (821).
Home / Away
Nelson
Toews
Home
49.8% (458)
59.3% (637)
Away
49.0% (506)
58.7% (699)
By Period
Nelson
Toews
P1
50.1%
61.5%
P2
45.4%
55.2%
P3
52.7%
60.0%
OT
33.3%
70.6%
Final 5 min
47.1%
57.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
59.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2021 | 3 | 03:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 2 | 14:09 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 1 | 16:34 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 1 | 03:39 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |