Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.5% vs Staal 54.7% (-4.4%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 15-8 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 55.9%
Defensive zone
Staal 70.8%
Neutral zone
Staal 59.7%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 62.5%
37.5%
62.5%
Nelson
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
8
(23 meetings)
15
8
Nelson
Staal
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
7
2
Nelson
Staal
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
4
5
Nelson
Staal
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
1
Nelson
Staal
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
50.6% (871)
56.2% (939)
-5.6%
Power Play
58.1% (160)
66.9% (139)
-8.8%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (193)
43.5% (239)
+0.5%
On power play, Staal has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (792).
Nelson shoots left. Staal is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (922).
Home / Away
Nelson
Staal
Home
52.3% (621)
55.4% (663)
Away
48.8% (603)
54.7% (654)
By Period
Nelson
Staal
P1
48.3%
54.9%
P2
53.4%
55.1%
P3
50.4%
54.0%
OT
41.2%
70.0%
Final 5 min
50.9%
57.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
62.0%▲
54.5%
50.6%
Staal
50.0%▼
52.5%
55.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 10:03 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 06:11 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 00:11 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 19:14 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 18:59 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 15:47 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 09:52 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 06:04 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 05:58 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 16:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 08:44 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 08:34 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 03:36 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 01:17 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:53 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 17:45 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 01:58 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 14:40 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 05:50 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |