Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Staal 54.2% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 11-5 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 73.9%
Defensive zone
Staal 58.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 51.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 58.6%
58.6%
41.4%
Nelson
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
11
(16 meetings)
5
11
Nelson
Staal
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
2
Nelson
Staal
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
0
4
Nelson
Staal
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
0
5
Nelson
Staal
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
57.0% (1,017)
-5.7%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
57.7% (26)
+1.0%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
45.1% (286)
+6.8%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. Staal is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (988).
Home / Away
Nelson
Staal
Home
52.5% (590)
54.3% (667)
Away
51.7% (619)
54.7% (662)
By Period
Nelson
Staal
P1
50.5%
56.2%
P2
54.4%
57.0%
P3
51.4%
49.7%
OT
47.4%
68.4%
Final 5 min
57.3%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2025 | OT | 01:10 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 17:13 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 12:34 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 1 | 19:12 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 1 | 15:02 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 1 | 14:52 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 3 | 06:42 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 3 | 04:05 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 2 | 11:41 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 2 | 05:02 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 1 | 13:16 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 1 | 08:21 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 1 | 05:47 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 10:42 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 1 | 08:39 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 1 | 08:33 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |