Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Staal 54.6% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 15-8 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 53.0%
Defensive zone
Staal 70.0%
Neutral zone
Staal 58.7%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 60.9%
39.1%
60.9%
Nelson
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
8
(23 meetings)
15
8
Nelson
Staal
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
7
2
Nelson
Staal
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
4
5
Nelson
Staal
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
1
Nelson
Staal
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
56.1% (955)
-5.4%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
66.9% (142)
-8.3%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
43.0% (242)
+0.4%
On power play, Staal has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (938).
Home / Away
Nelson
Staal
Home
52.3% (621)
55.4% (663)
Away
48.9% (618)
54.4% (676)
By Period
Nelson
Staal
P1
48.4%
55.1%
P2
53.5%
54.7%
P3
50.3%
53.9%
OT
41.2%
70.0%
Final 5 min
50.8%
57.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 10:03 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 06:11 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 00:11 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 19:14 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 18:59 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 15:47 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 09:52 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 06:04 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 05:58 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 16:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 08:44 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 08:34 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 03:36 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 01:17 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:53 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 17:45 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 01:58 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 14:40 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 05:50 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |