Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Staal 55.3% (-8.4%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 7-7 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 71.0%
Defensive zone
Staal 75.2%
Neutral zone
Staal 50.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 57.2%
57.2%
42.8%
Nelson
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
7
(14 meetings)
7
7
Nelson
Staal
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Nelson
Staal
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
0
1
Nelson
Staal
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
3
Nelson
Staal
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
56.3% (1,115)
-9.4%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
61.2% (67)
-3.8%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
52.1% (292)
-27.1%
On penalty kill, Staal has a +27.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Nelson is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Nelson shoots left. Staal is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (946).
Home / Away
Nelson
Staal
Home
48.9% (521)
58.3% (705)
Away
45.5% (516)
53.3% (769)
By Period
Nelson
Staal
P1
45.9%
54.5%
P2
48.0%
58.2%
P3
48.0%
54.1%
OT
33.3%
60.0%
Final 5 min
45.3%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2023 | 2 | 09:27 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 3 | 12:15 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 1 | 15:42 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 10, 2022 | 3 | 08:32 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 10, 2022 | 2 | 12:00 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 28, 2022 | 3 | 03:59 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 28, 2022 | 3 | 01:19 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 28, 2022 | 3 | 01:10 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 28, 2022 | 2 | 14:52 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 28, 2022 | 2 | 11:51 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 28, 2022 | 2 | 04:17 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 28, 2022 | 1 | 05:09 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |