Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 43 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Eller 50.5% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 63-61 in 124 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 55.3%
Defensive zone
Eller 67.5%
Neutral zone
Eller 56.8%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 56.4%
43.6%
56.4%
Nelson
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
63
-
61
(124 meetings)
63
61
Nelson
Eller
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
27
16
Nelson
Eller
43 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
19
25
Nelson
Eller
44 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
17
20
Nelson
Eller
37 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
51.1% (10,296)
-3.2%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
52.8% (621)
+1.7%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
46.7% (1,751)
-2.9%
On even strength, Eller has a +3.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Eller is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (8,123).
Home / Away
Nelson
Eller
Home
50.0% (5,845)
51.4% (6,118)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
49.7% (6,578)
By Period
Nelson
Eller
P1
48.7%
51.2%
P2
48.5%
50.1%
P3
47.7%
50.2%
OT
45.6%
56.7%
Final 5 min
47.8%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 14:03 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 3 | 17:11 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 3 | 13:11 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 3 | 13:04 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 3 | 12:48 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 3 | 03:34 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 2 | 19:45 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 2 | 13:48 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 2 | 13:37 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 2 | 07:05 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 1 | 06:00 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 04:18 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 2 | 11:58 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 1 | 09:13 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 03:13 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 10:27 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Apr 28, 2022 | 3 | 13:37 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 28, 2022 | 2 | 07:17 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 28, 2022 | 2 | 06:59 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Apr 28, 2022 | 2 | 03:24 | Offensive | Lars Eller |