Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.4% vs 49.5%). Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Eller 49.5% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 8-7 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 68.7%
Defensive zone
Eller 68.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 53.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 53.1%
53.1%
46.9%
Nelson
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
7
(15 meetings)
8
7
Nelson
Eller
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
3
Nelson
Eller
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
2
3
Nelson
Eller
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Eller
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
51.1% (786)
-1.2%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
45.0% (80)
+7.8%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
43.6% (165)
-15.0%
On penalty kill, Eller has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Nelson is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (646).
Nelson shoots left. Eller is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (677).
Home / Away
Nelson
Eller
Home
49.8% (458)
51.2% (510)
Away
49.0% (506)
47.8% (521)
By Period
Nelson
Eller
P1
50.1%
50.7%
P2
45.4%
49.0%
P3
52.7%
48.3%
OT
33.3%
56.3%
Final 5 min
47.1%
45.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 2022 | 3 | 13:37 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 28, 2022 | 2 | 07:17 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 28, 2022 | 2 | 06:59 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Apr 28, 2022 | 2 | 03:24 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Apr 28, 2022 | 2 | 03:11 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Apr 28, 2022 | 1 | 15:34 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Apr 28, 2022 | 1 | 13:28 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 28, 2022 | 1 | 13:14 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 28, 2022 | 1 | 09:01 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Apr 28, 2022 | 1 | 02:03 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 2 | 18:48 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 2 | 18:40 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 17:52 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 08:11 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 04:55 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |