Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.1% vs 52.2%). Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Eller 51.9% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 69.6%
Defensive zone
Eller 57.5%
Neutral zone
Nelson 51.7%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 55.7%
55.7%
44.3%
Nelson
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Nelson
Eller
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
1
Nelson
Eller
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
1
2
Nelson
Eller
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
Eller
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
52.8% (650)
-1.5%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
69.2% (13)
-10.5%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
45.5% (88)
+6.4%
On power play, Eller has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. Eller is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (526).
Home / Away
Nelson
Eller
Home
52.5% (590)
52.6% (340)
Away
51.7% (619)
51.8% (411)
By Period
Nelson
Eller
P1
50.5%
52.4%
P2
54.4%
54.1%
P3
51.4%
50.0%
OT
47.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.3%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 14:03 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 3 | 17:11 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 3 | 13:11 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 3 | 13:04 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 3 | 12:48 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 3 | 03:34 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 2 | 19:45 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 2 | 13:48 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 2 | 13:37 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 2 | 07:05 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 1 | 06:00 | Neutral | Lars Eller |