Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.4% vs 48.7%). Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Couture 48.8% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 69.3%
Defensive zone
Couture 63.5%
Neutral zone
Nelson 59.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 53.8%
53.8%
46.2%
Nelson
Couture
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Nelson
Couture
Last 7: Nelson 4-3 Couture
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
0
Nelson
Couture
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Couture
0
3
Nelson
Couture
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Couture
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Couture
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
48.7% (986)
+1.2%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
58.5% (94)
-5.7%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
44.1% (195)
-15.5%
On penalty kill, Couture has a +15.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couture shoots left. Nelson is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (646).
Nelson shoots left. Couture is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (826).
Home / Away
Nelson
Couture
Home
49.8% (458)
47.2% (625)
Away
49.0% (506)
50.2% (650)
By Period
Nelson
Couture
P1
50.1%
46.8%
P2
45.4%
49.8%
P3
52.7%
49.8%
OT
33.3%
46.2%
Final 5 min
47.1%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Couture
42.0%▼
53.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2022 | OT | 03:32 | Defensive | Logan Couture |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 2 | 16:50 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 2 | 09:51 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 2 | 09:43 | Defensive | Logan Couture |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 2 | 04:00 | Defensive | Logan Couture |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 1 | 11:36 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 1 | 11:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |