Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.3% vs 47.4%). Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Couture 47.6% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Couture leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 63.0%
Defensive zone
Couture 77.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 50.1%
Result
Logan Couture favored at 57.9%
42.1%
57.9%
Nelson
Couture
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
9
(14 meetings)
5
9
Nelson
Couture
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Couture
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
0
Nelson
Couture
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Couture
1
5
Nelson
Couture
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Couture
0
4
Nelson
Couture
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Couture
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
49.2% (1,083)
-2.3%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
56.7% (60)
+0.7%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
35.4% (206)
-10.4%
On penalty kill, Couture has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couture shoots left. Nelson is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Nelson shoots left. Couture is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (857).
Home / Away
Nelson
Couture
Home
48.9% (521)
49.6% (713)
Away
45.5% (516)
45.0% (636)
By Period
Nelson
Couture
P1
45.9%
47.2%
P2
48.0%
45.0%
P3
48.0%
50.0%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
45.3%
42.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Couture
42.0%▼
53.0%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2023 | 3 | 06:26 | Defensive | Logan Couture |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 3 | 00:07 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Logan Couture |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Logan Couture |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Logan Couture |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 3 | 00:57 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 09:57 | Defensive | Logan Couture |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 09:40 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 07:01 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 1 | 13:08 | Defensive | Logan Couture |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 1 | 13:03 | Defensive | Logan Couture |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 1 | 09:12 | Defensive | Logan Couture |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 1 | 06:07 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Logan Couture |