Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.3% vs 48.3%). Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Couture 48.3% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 22-21 in 43 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 55.7%
Defensive zone
Couture 55.1%
Neutral zone
Couture 50.2%
Result
Logan Couture favored at 50.8%
49.2%
50.8%
Nelson
Couture
Head-to-Head Record
22
-
21
(43 meetings)
22
21
Nelson
Couture
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Couture
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
9
0
Nelson
Couture
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Couture
4
12
Nelson
Couture
16 total
Neutral Zone
Even
9
9
Nelson
Couture
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Couture
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
48.8% (8,919)
-0.9%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
54.6% (624)
-0.1%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
39.8% (992)
+4.0%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couture shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Couture is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (6,927).
Home / Away
Nelson
Couture
Home
50.0% (5,845)
49.4% (5,418)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
47.1% (5,135)
By Period
Nelson
Couture
P1
48.7%
47.9%
P2
48.5%
47.9%
P3
47.7%
49.2%
OT
45.6%
48.0%
Final 5 min
47.8%
45.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Couture
42.0%▼
53.0%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2023 | 3 | 06:26 | Defensive | Logan Couture |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 3 | 00:07 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Logan Couture |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Logan Couture |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Logan Couture |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 3 | 00:57 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 09:57 | Defensive | Logan Couture |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 09:40 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 07:01 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 1 | 13:08 | Defensive | Logan Couture |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 1 | 13:03 | Defensive | Logan Couture |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 1 | 09:12 | Defensive | Logan Couture |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 1 | 06:07 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Logan Couture |
| Feb 24, 2022 | OT | 03:32 | Defensive | Logan Couture |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 2 | 16:50 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 2 | 09:51 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 2 | 09:43 | Defensive | Logan Couture |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 2 | 04:00 | Defensive | Logan Couture |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 1 | 11:36 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |