Scouting Report
Mark Jankowski holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Jankowski 53.6% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jankowski 64.6%
Defensive zone
Nelson 52.3%
Neutral zone
Jankowski 58.0%
Result
Mark Jankowski favored at 58.0%
42.0%
58.0%
Nelson
Jankowski
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Nelson
Jankowski
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Jankowski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Jankowski
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
54.1% (527)
-3.4%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
50.0% (14)
+8.6%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
57.5% (40)
-14.1%
On penalty kill, Jankowski has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jankowski shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. Jankowski is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (365).
Home / Away
Nelson
Jankowski
Home
52.3% (621)
53.9% (310)
Away
48.9% (618)
54.6% (271)
By Period
Nelson
Jankowski
P1
48.4%
54.6%
P2
53.5%
56.3%
P3
50.3%
51.9%
Final 5 min
50.8%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Jankowski
58.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 16:59 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |