Scouting Report
Mark Jankowski holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Jankowski 54.4% (-8.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 61.3%
Defensive zone
Jankowski 90.3%
Neutral zone
Jankowski 66.7%
Result
Mark Jankowski favored at 52.0%
48.0%
52.0%
Nelson
Jankowski
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Nelson
Jankowski
Last 6: Nelson 4-2 Jankowski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
1
Nelson
Jankowski
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jankowski
0
1
Nelson
Jankowski
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Jankowski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Jankowski
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
58.6% (273)
-11.7%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
66.7% (3)
-9.3%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
43.3% (67)
-18.3%
On penalty kill, Jankowski has a +18.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jankowski shoots left. Nelson is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Nelson shoots left. Jankowski is 57.5% vs left-shot opponents (193).
Home / Away
Nelson
Jankowski
Home
48.9% (521)
54.7% (128)
Away
45.5% (516)
56.3% (215)
By Period
Nelson
Jankowski
P1
45.9%
54.5%
P2
48.0%
56.5%
P3
48.0%
56.2%
Final 5 min
45.3%
52.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Jankowski
58.0%▲
52.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2022 | 2 | 18:52 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 2, 2022 | 2 | 11:07 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 2, 2022 | 1 | 10:55 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 15:39 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 03:01 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 1 | 07:50 | Offensive | Mark Jankowski |