Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.3% vs 48.8%). Look for Domi on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Domi 48.8% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Domi leads 26-23 in 49 meetings
Offensive zone
Domi 60.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 52.3%
Neutral zone
Domi 51.6%
Result
Max Domi favored at 53.5%
46.5%
53.5%
Nelson
Domi
Head-to-Head Record
23
-
26
(49 meetings)
23
26
Nelson
Domi
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Domi
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Domi
7
8
Nelson
Domi
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Domi
3
6
Nelson
Domi
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
13
12
Nelson
Domi
25 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Domi
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
48.1% (4,296)
-0.2%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
53.4% (633)
+1.1%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
48.8% (41)
-5.0%
On penalty kill, Domi has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Domi shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Domi is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,341).
Home / Away
Nelson
Domi
Home
50.0% (5,845)
49.7% (2,604)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
47.8% (2,366)
By Period
Nelson
Domi
P1
48.7%
48.7%
P2
48.5%
48.3%
P3
47.7%
49.8%
OT
45.6%
43.5%
Final 5 min
47.8%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Domi
54.0%▲
52.5%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2025 | 3 | 07:47 | Defensive | Max Domi |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 10:57 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 3 | 09:43 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 3 | 04:26 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 3 | 01:28 | Neutral | Max Domi |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 1 | 13:08 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 16:12 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 01:39 | Neutral | Max Domi |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 01:27 | Neutral | Max Domi |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 01:21 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 17:29 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 3 | 01:51 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 1 | 05:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 5, 2024 | 2 | 06:18 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 18:02 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 01:55 | Defensive | Max Domi |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 1 | 05:14 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 1 | 01:43 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Dec 11, 2023 | 1 | 18:33 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 3 | 15:27 | Defensive | Max Domi |