Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Domi 50.2% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 64.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 67.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 68.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 67.1%
67.1%
32.9%
Nelson
Domi
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
5
(13 meetings)
8
5
Nelson
Domi
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Domi
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
1
Nelson
Domi
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Domi
0
1
Nelson
Domi
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
3
Nelson
Domi
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Domi
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
49.7% (499)
+1.6%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
56.8% (44)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
0.0% (1)
+51.9%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +51.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Domi shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. Domi is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (372).
Home / Away
Nelson
Domi
Home
52.5% (590)
51.0% (298)
Away
51.7% (619)
49.2% (246)
By Period
Nelson
Domi
P1
50.5%
54.8%
P2
54.4%
48.9%
P3
51.4%
46.4%
Final 5 min
57.3%
45.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Domi
54.0%▲
52.5%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2025 | 3 | 07:47 | Defensive | Max Domi |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 10:57 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 3 | 09:43 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 3 | 04:26 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 3 | 01:28 | Neutral | Max Domi |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 1 | 13:08 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 16:12 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 01:39 | Neutral | Max Domi |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 01:27 | Neutral | Max Domi |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 01:21 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 17:29 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 3 | 01:51 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 1 | 05:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |