Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Amadio shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Amadio 47.4% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Amadio leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Amadio 56.8%
Defensive zone
Nelson 56.4%
Neutral zone
Amadio 55.2%
Result
Michael Amadio favored at 50.4%
49.6%
50.4%
Nelson
Amadio
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
7
(13 meetings)
6
7
Nelson
Amadio
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Amadio
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
2
Nelson
Amadio
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Nelson
Amadio
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Amadio
0
2
Nelson
Amadio
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Amadio
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
47.3% (1,363)
+0.6%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
50.9% (57)
+3.6%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
34.8% (23)
+9.0%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Amadio shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Amadio is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,045).
Home / Away
Nelson
Amadio
Home
50.0% (5,845)
47.3% (656)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
47.3% (787)
By Period
Nelson
Amadio
P1
48.7%
50.5%
P2
48.5%
44.8%
P3
47.7%
46.7%
Final 5 min
47.8%
49.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Amadio
44.0%▼
50.5%
47.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 17:40 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 6, 2020 | 2 | 10:32 | Defensive | Michael Amadio |
| Feb 6, 2020 | 2 | 10:22 | Neutral | Michael Amadio |
| Feb 6, 2020 | 2 | 02:28 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 2 | 07:57 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 2 | 07:38 | Defensive | Michael Amadio |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 2 | 04:01 | Defensive | Michael Amadio |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 2 | 01:07 | Offensive | Michael Amadio |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 1 | 08:28 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Michael Amadio |
| Feb 2, 2019 | 3 | 10:40 | Offensive | Michael Amadio |
| Feb 2, 2019 | 2 | 05:03 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2018 | 1 | 02:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |