Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Amadio on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Nelson wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Amadio shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.6% vs Amadio 48.6% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Amadio 65.0%
Defensive zone
Amadio 64.8%
Neutral zone
Amadio 68.3%
Result
Michael Amadio favored at 65.6%
34.4%
65.6%
Nelson
Amadio
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Nelson
Amadio
Last 9: Nelson 3-6 Amadio
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Amadio
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Amadio
1
3
Nelson
Amadio
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Amadio
0
2
Nelson
Amadio
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Amadio
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (902)
48.7% (458)
+2.0%
Power Play
59.8% (169)
44.4% (9)
+15.4%
Penalty Kill
48.3% (116)
38.5% (13)
+9.8%
On power play, Nelson has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Amadio shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (455).
Nelson shoots left. Amadio is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (350).
Home / Away
Nelson
Amadio
Home
53.6% (603)
46.6% (238)
Away
49.9% (585)
50.0% (242)
By Period
Nelson
Amadio
P1
55.4%
46.6%
P2
47.2%
54.2%
P3
52.6%
43.0%
Final 5 min
54.1%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
51.8%
Amadio
44.0%▼
50.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2020 | 2 | 10:32 | Defensive | Michael Amadio |
| Feb 6, 2020 | 2 | 10:22 | Neutral | Michael Amadio |
| Feb 6, 2020 | 2 | 02:28 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 2 | 07:57 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 2 | 07:38 | Defensive | Michael Amadio |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 2 | 04:01 | Defensive | Michael Amadio |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 2 | 01:07 | Offensive | Michael Amadio |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 1 | 08:28 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Michael Amadio |