Scouting Report
Michael McLeod holds a +13.3% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — McLeod shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs McLeod 59.6% (-13.3%)
H2H factor
McLeod leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 78.6%
Defensive zone
McLeod 83.3%
Neutral zone
McLeod 51.3%
Result
Michael McLeod favored at 55.3%
44.7%
55.3%
Nelson
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Nelson
McLeod
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
McLeod
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
2
3
Nelson
McLeod
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
McLeod
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
61.5% (792)
-14.6%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
65.2% (23)
-7.8%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
55.6% (153)
-30.6%
On penalty kill, McLeod has a +30.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Nelson shoots left. McLeod is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (720).
Home / Away
Nelson
McLeod
Home
48.9% (521)
62.0% (460)
Away
45.5% (516)
59.4% (508)
By Period
Nelson
McLeod
P1
45.9%
61.5%
P2
48.0%
63.6%
P3
48.0%
56.2%
OT
33.3%
73.3%
Final 5 min
45.3%
60.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
McLeod
56.0%▼
63.5%
60.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2023 | 2 | 13:48 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 3 | 09:55 | Offensive | Michael McLeod |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 3 | 09:48 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 3 | 09:37 | Offensive | Michael McLeod |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 2 | 04:05 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 1 | 08:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 1 | 01:50 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 3 | 18:40 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 2 | 14:37 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 1 | 17:09 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |