Scouting Report
Michael McLeod holds a +19.8% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Nelson wins 43.3% vs right-shot opponents — McLeod shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs McLeod 63.0% (-19.8%)
H2H factor
McLeod leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 73.3%
Defensive zone
McLeod 81.7%
Neutral zone
McLeod 50.5%
Result
Michael McLeod favored at 58.2%
41.8%
58.2%
Nelson
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Nelson
McLeod
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
McLeod
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
4
Nelson
McLeod
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
1
Nelson
McLeod
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
64.8% (509)
-18.7%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
68.4% (19)
-33.9%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
65.3% (124)
-34.9%
On penalty kill, McLeod has a +34.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots right. Nelson is 43.3% vs right-shot opponents (240).
Nelson shoots left. McLeod is 66.7% vs left-shot opponents (496).
Home / Away
Nelson
McLeod
Home
48.7% (419)
64.3% (308)
Away
41.3% (368)
65.7% (344)
By Period
Nelson
McLeod
P1
44.6%
62.9%
P2
47.3%
64.8%
P3
43.0%
67.9%
OT
100.0%
37.5%
Final 5 min
39.4%
66.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
McLeod
56.0%▼
63.5%
65.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2023 | 3 | 09:43 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 3 | 06:45 | Neutral | Michael McLeod |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 1 | 04:47 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 1 | 03:03 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Oct 20, 2023 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 20, 2023 | 3 | 18:22 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Oct 20, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 20, 2023 | 2 | 04:18 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 20, 2023 | 2 | 01:25 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 20, 2023 | 1 | 19:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |