Scouting Report
Michael McLeod holds a +10.0% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 21 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — McLeod shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs McLeod 58.0% (-10.0%)
H2H factor
McLeod leads 23-22 in 45 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 78.2%
Defensive zone
McLeod 72.0%
Neutral zone
Nelson 54.3%
Result
Michael McLeod favored at 50.5%
49.5%
50.5%
Nelson
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
22
-
23
(45 meetings)
22
23
Nelson
McLeod
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
11
3
Nelson
McLeod
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
3
18
Nelson
McLeod
21 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
8
2
Nelson
McLeod
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
59.2% (2,894)
-11.3%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
57.4% (101)
-2.9%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
53.5% (525)
-9.7%
On even strength, McLeod has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. McLeod is 60.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,457).
Home / Away
Nelson
McLeod
Home
50.0% (5,845)
58.2% (1,647)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
58.4% (1,873)
By Period
Nelson
McLeod
P1
48.7%
58.7%
P2
48.5%
59.9%
P3
47.7%
56.3%
OT
45.6%
63.6%
Final 5 min
47.8%
58.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
McLeod
56.0%▼
63.5%
58.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2023 | 3 | 09:43 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 3 | 06:45 | Neutral | Michael McLeod |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 1 | 04:47 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 1 | 03:03 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Oct 20, 2023 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 20, 2023 | 3 | 18:22 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Oct 20, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 20, 2023 | 2 | 04:18 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 20, 2023 | 2 | 01:25 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 20, 2023 | 1 | 19:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 27, 2023 | 2 | 13:48 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 3 | 09:55 | Offensive | Michael McLeod |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 3 | 09:48 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 3 | 09:37 | Offensive | Michael McLeod |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 2 | 04:05 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 1 | 08:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 1 | 01:50 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 3 | 18:40 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 2 | 14:37 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 1 | 17:09 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |