Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Backlund 50.5% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 63.7%
Defensive zone
Backlund 66.5%
Neutral zone
Nelson 54.6%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 51.1%
48.9%
51.1%
Nelson
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Nelson
Backlund
Last 8: Nelson 4-4 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Backlund
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
3
Nelson
Backlund
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Backlund
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
51.5% (983)
-1.6%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
49.4% (87)
+3.4%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
45.3% (159)
-16.7%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Nelson is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (646).
Nelson shoots left. Backlund is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (742).
Home / Away
Nelson
Backlund
Home
49.8% (458)
51.6% (653)
Away
49.0% (506)
49.3% (576)
By Period
Nelson
Backlund
P1
50.1%
50.0%
P2
45.4%
49.8%
P3
52.7%
51.7%
OT
33.3%
53.3%
Final 5 min
47.1%
50.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 12, 2022 | 3 | 11:17 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 2 | 06:19 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 1 | 18:08 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 1 | 14:57 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 3 | 08:39 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 2 | 11:23 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 2 | 03:27 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |