Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Backlund 50.8% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 70.9%
Defensive zone
Backlund 51.5%
Neutral zone
Nelson 58.5%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 58.5%
58.5%
41.5%
Nelson
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Nelson
Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
2
Nelson
Backlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
51.9% (1,083)
-5.0%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
51.7% (120)
+5.7%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
44.3% (183)
-19.3%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +19.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Nelson is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Nelson shoots left. Backlund is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (824).
Home / Away
Nelson
Backlund
Home
48.9% (521)
51.9% (673)
Away
45.5% (516)
49.9% (713)
By Period
Nelson
Backlund
P1
45.9%
51.4%
P2
48.0%
50.5%
P3
48.0%
51.4%
OT
33.3%
35.0%
Final 5 min
45.3%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2023 | 3 | 06:59 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 3 | 02:32 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |