Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.6% vs 49.7%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Backlund 49.7% (+0.9%)
Offensive zone
Nelson 73.0%
Defensive zone
Backlund 71.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 51.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 50.9%
50.9%
49.1%
Nelson
Backlund
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
50.1% (891)
+0.6%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
53.1% (64)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
47.8% (278)
-4.4%
On power play, Nelson has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. Backlund is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (871).
Home / Away
Nelson
Backlund
Home
52.3% (621)
48.1% (580)
Away
48.9% (618)
51.1% (653)
By Period
Nelson
Backlund
P1
48.4%
45.1%
P2
53.5%
54.7%
P3
50.3%
49.0%
OT
41.2%
46.2%
Final 5 min
50.8%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%