Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Backlund 48.5% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 69.8%
Defensive zone
Backlund 80.4%
Neutral zone
Backlund 53.9%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 60.3%
39.7%
60.3%
Nelson
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Nelson
Backlund
Last 5: Nelson 2-3 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Backlund
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
3
Nelson
Backlund
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
50.4% (1,032)
+0.9%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
52.3% (107)
+6.4%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
40.6% (313)
+11.3%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. Backlund is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,014).
Home / Away
Nelson
Backlund
Home
52.5% (590)
48.7% (749)
Away
51.7% (619)
48.1% (703)
By Period
Nelson
Backlund
P1
50.5%
50.4%
P2
54.4%
50.1%
P3
51.4%
45.8%
OT
47.4%
30.8%
Final 5 min
57.3%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 03:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 1 | 03:34 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 3 | 19:45 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 3 | 14:15 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 1 | 00:26 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |