Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.3% vs 48.4%). Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Geekie shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Geekie 48.5% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 50.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 52.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 53.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 52.4%
52.4%
47.6%
Nelson
Geekie
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
6
(13 meetings)
7
6
Nelson
Geekie
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Geekie
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Geekie
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Geekie
1
2
Nelson
Geekie
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
3
Nelson
Geekie
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Geekie
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
48.8% (2,307)
-0.9%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
45.7% (188)
+8.8%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
45.7% (129)
-1.9%
On power play, Nelson has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Geekie shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Geekie is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,923).
Home / Away
Nelson
Geekie
Home
50.0% (5,845)
50.0% (1,281)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
46.8% (1,343)
By Period
Nelson
Geekie
P1
48.7%
48.6%
P2
48.5%
48.8%
P3
47.7%
47.7%
OT
45.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.8%
47.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Geekie
46.0%▼
47.5%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 00:36 | Neutral | Morgan Geekie |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 3 | 13:43 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 2 | 12:04 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 2 | 09:51 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 2 | 00:37 | Neutral | Morgan Geekie |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 1 | 02:32 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 2 | 06:26 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 1 | 15:30 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 22, 2022 | 2 | 16:28 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Feb 22, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Geekie |
| Feb 22, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 2, 2022 | 2 | 06:48 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 2, 2022 | 1 | 17:56 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |