Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Geekie shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Geekie 47.3% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Geekie 68.0%
Defensive zone
Geekie 51.6%
Neutral zone
Geekie 57.3%
Result
Morgan Geekie favored at 57.3%
42.7%
57.3%
Nelson
Geekie
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Nelson
Geekie
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Geekie
0
1
Nelson
Geekie
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Geekie
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
45.7% (352)
+5.6%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
63.2% (19)
-4.5%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
33.3% (3)
+18.6%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +18.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Geekie shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Nelson shoots left. Geekie is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (307).
Home / Away
Nelson
Geekie
Home
52.5% (590)
48.5% (165)
Away
51.7% (619)
45.0% (209)
By Period
Nelson
Geekie
P1
50.5%
48.5%
P2
54.4%
45.1%
P3
51.4%
45.8%
Final 5 min
57.3%
47.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Geekie
46.0%▼
47.5%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 00:36 | Neutral | Morgan Geekie |