Scouting Report
Morgan Geekie holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Geekie 52.1% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Geekie 51.3%
Defensive zone
Geekie 62.0%
Neutral zone
Nelson 60.5%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 51.5%
51.5%
48.5%
Nelson
Geekie
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Nelson
Geekie
Last 5: Nelson 3-2 Geekie
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Geekie
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Geekie
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Geekie
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
53.2% (615)
-3.3%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
44.4% (36)
+8.4%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
44.4% (18)
-15.8%
On penalty kill, Geekie has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Geekie shoots right. Nelson is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (318).
Nelson shoots left. Geekie is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (473).
Home / Away
Nelson
Geekie
Home
49.8% (458)
55.0% (331)
Away
49.0% (506)
50.0% (338)
By Period
Nelson
Geekie
P1
50.1%
53.9%
P2
45.4%
56.0%
P3
52.7%
46.5%
OT
33.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
47.1%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Geekie
46.0%▼
47.5%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2022 | 2 | 16:28 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Feb 22, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Geekie |
| Feb 22, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 2, 2022 | 2 | 06:48 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 2, 2022 | 1 | 17:56 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |