Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 43.3% vs right-shot opponents — Geekie shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Geekie 44.9% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 54.1%
Defensive zone
Geekie 60.5%
Neutral zone
Geekie 53.1%
Result
Morgan Geekie favored at 51.7%
48.3%
51.7%
Nelson
Geekie
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Nelson
Geekie
Last 5: Nelson 2-3 Geekie
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Geekie
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Geekie
0
1
Nelson
Geekie
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Geekie
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Geekie
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
43.7% (584)
+2.4%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
47.1% (68)
-12.6%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
50.0% (8)
-19.6%
On penalty kill, Geekie has a +19.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Geekie shoots right. Nelson is 43.3% vs right-shot opponents (240).
Nelson shoots left. Geekie is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (498).
Home / Away
Nelson
Geekie
Home
48.7% (419)
45.3% (329)
Away
41.3% (368)
42.9% (331)
By Period
Nelson
Geekie
P1
44.6%
41.2%
P2
47.3%
45.0%
P3
43.0%
46.2%
OT
100.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
39.4%
45.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Geekie
46.0%▼
47.5%
44.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 15, 2023 | 3 | 13:43 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 2 | 12:04 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 2 | 09:51 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 2 | 00:37 | Neutral | Morgan Geekie |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 1 | 02:32 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |