Scouting Report
Nick Bonino holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.4% vs Bonino 50.4% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 59.5%
Defensive zone
Bonino 63.9%
Neutral zone
Bonino 52.7%
Result
Nick Bonino favored at 55.4%
44.6%
55.4%
Nelson
Bonino
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Nelson
Bonino
Last 8: Nelson 6-2 Bonino
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Bonino
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bonino
1
2
Nelson
Bonino
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
0
Nelson
Bonino
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Bonino
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (347)
50.2% (691)
-0.6%
Power Play
20.8% (24)
61.5% (78)
-40.7%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (17)
45.6% (149)
+7.3%
On power play, Bonino has a +40.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bonino shoots left. Nelson is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (264).
Nelson shoots left. Bonino is 51.5% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Home / Away
Nelson
Bonino
Home
52.9% (210)
52.7% (467)
Away
42.1% (178)
48.1% (451)
By Period
Nelson
Bonino
P1
43.9%
48.9%
P2
48.1%
50.2%
P3
53.1%
51.7%
OT
40.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
42.7%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.9%
Bonino
46.0%▼
47.5%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2016 | 3 | 12:55 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 2, 2016 | 2 | 09:05 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 2, 2016 | 2 | 01:31 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 2, 2016 | 2 | 01:25 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Apr 2, 2016 | 1 | 10:05 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 2, 2016 | 1 | 04:59 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 2, 2016 | 1 | 01:50 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Mar 8, 2016 | 2 | 14:42 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |